The International Actuarial Association (IAA) is pleased to announce the publication of the discussion paper on Risks to Water Resources developed by its Resource and Environment Working Group.

Since water resources are critical for human survival, even short-term disruptions in the supply of water can have potentially devastating consequences, including adverse impacts on financial security systems.

The main purpose of this paper is to start a discussion on water resource risk among actuaries before addressing the broader scientific and public policy communities. We believe that actuaries need to be informed about how water resource risks affect a wide range of perils commonly insured, including life, health, property and agriculture.

The paper illustrates the central risks by considering three representative systems in New York City, Mexico City and India. It goes on to illustrate best-practice actuarial risk management techniques, applied in a context outside the traditional actuarial domain. The paper employs what we believe to be best-practice actuarial risk management techniques, applied in a context outside the traditional actuarial domain. It may therefore serve as a useful educational tool, and a showcase for the profession’s risk management capabilities.

The paper is available on the IAA website under PUBLICATIONS/PAPERS.

The Resource and Environment Working Group will host a webinar on 14 December 2020 at 7:00 AM (EST) to present this paper. To register for the webinar, please click here.

This activity advances the IAA’s mission and strategic objectives to provide key supranational institutions with actuarial expertise on issues of relevance in global forums and to promote the advancement of scientific knowledge and skills of the actuarial profession.

To learn more about the work of the IAA on this topic, contact the Director of Technical Activities at the IAA Secretariat.

Lees iedere week een blog op de website van het Koninklijk Actuarieel Genootschap. Vakspecialisten delen hun visie over een voor hen relevant thema. Deze keer de visie van Fleur Rieter. Lees verder>>

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Lees de nieuwste uitgave van onze PE nieuwsbrief en schijf u in voor ons cursusaanbod!

Today the AAE issued a press release with respect to the publication of the discussion paper ‘Roles of Actuaries in relation to IFRS 17‘. The press release is available here.

Lees iedere week een blog op de website van het Koninklijk Actuarieel Genootschap. Vakspecialisten delen hun visie over een voor hen relevant thema. Deze keer de visie van Gilbert Pluym. Lees verder>>

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Lees iedere week een blog op de website van het Koninklijk Actuarieel Genootschap. Vakspecialisten delen hun visie over een voor hen relevant thema. Deze keer de visie van Yentl Goosens. Lees verder>>

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Lees de nieuwste uitgave van The European Actuary: number 24 (November 2020)

Ga naar de website van The European Actuary voor eerdere uitgaven en meer informatie.

Every two years, the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association publishes a model that estimates life expectancies for men and women in the Netherlands. This model also provides the mortality table that is used for Dutch pension calculations and a method to generate scenarios for future survival probabilities.

In the most recent estimates, the increase in life expectancy has been adjusted downwards to an average of 89 years for men and 92 years for women. Future improvements in survival rates have been taken into account in the calculations.

Slower rise in retirement age and lower technical provisions are expected
The Dutch pension system consists of three pillars. The first pillar is the state pension, and the age at which those payments start depends on life expectancy. It is currently 67 years and it is now expected to rise to 67 years and three months around 2030.

In the second pillar, which consists of occupational pension schemes, the update has led to a decrease in pension technical provisions of approximately 2.5 per cent for average interest rate levels at the end of 2019. For the individual pensions that are found in the third pillar, increased benefits at the start of the retirement period are expected.

Inclusion of European data leads to stable trends
The model uses Dutch data and data from European countries with a comparable level of prosperity, such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany. As a result, the prognosis is based on a dataset that contains about two million deaths per year, which enhances the stability of the estimates over time. In our model, Dutch life expectancies are expected to converge to long-term European trends eventually.

Any European country with comparable prosperity can use our approach, when its data is added to the common European dataset. In Belgium, a very similar method has already been implemented. The effect of Covid-19 has not been included yet, but preliminary sensitivity analysis indicates a possible further decline.

It is not yet possible to fully include the impact of Covid-19 in our forecasts. There are still too few datapoints available for 2020 and the impact in different European countries varies considerably.

As a first indication of the possible impact, a sensitivity analysis has been performed, based on data from the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. We looked at two possibilities. In the first analysis, only the effects of the coronavirus wave in the spring is taken into account.

The second study estimates the impact of a possible doubling of that effect due to developments in the rest of 2020. In the first case we find a reduction in remaining life expectancies of 0.44 years for men at age 65 and 0.19 years for women of that age.

In the second case the impacts grow to 0.87 years and 0.33 years respectively. When more data becomes available, it will be possible to provide better estimates for such effects.

See: https://www.europeanpensions.net/ep/GC-Slowing-longevity-and-its-impact-on-pensions.php.

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In november en in januari verzorgt het Actuarieel Instituut in samenwerking met een aantal gerenommeerde experts op het gebied van corporate risk, organisatiepsychologie en ethiek, drie interessante online bijeenkomsten:

1. Leergang Corporate Risk
   vanaf 13 november l 24 PE-punten l normaal € 2.750
    
2. Workshop Professionele ethiek voor actuariële professionals
   11 januari 2021 l 6 PE-punten l normaal € 659
    
3. Masterclass Corporate Governance
   vanaf 26 januari l 10 PE-punten l normaal € 1.249

Ons aanbod tot 10 november 2020 

Betaal € 3.999 in plaats van € 4.658 voor dit complete Risk & Governance actiepakket, waarmee u in één keer 40 PE-punten kunt halen!

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U ontvangt de totaalfactuur tweede helft december.

De Actuarial Association of Europe (AAE) heeft een reactie ingediend op de raadpleging van de Commissie over verzekerings- en herverzekeringsondernemingen - herziening van prudentiële regels (Solvency II-richtlijn). Ga naar de inzending van de AAE>>